Forecasting with VAR and Prophet

Valentina Djordjevic Technology 2 Comments

In my previous post, I tried to present the ARIMA model for forecasting. It was based on the use of autoregression and moving average concepts, combining the regression of variable based on its lagged values and calculation of error based on the linear combination of error terms occurred in the past, respectively. In this post, we’re going to talk about VAR and Prophet as alternative models. The main problem was that developed ARIMA model could not be applied to predict the output  for all of different objects we ran the forecasting for, which was the principal idea. As we dug …

Forecasting with ARIMA

Valentina Djordjevic Technology 8 Comments

One of the most challenging machine learning problems is predicting some output based on the history of its previous values. The complexity of the problem multiplies as new features and constraints are added to analysis. Thus, in time series analysis it is not always enough to use previous values only, there often are many features that could impact on the output which should be predicted. There are numerous models and algorithms developed for this kind of problem. In this article, and series of articles that follows, several models, such as ARIMA, VAR and  Facebook Prophet, will be introduced and finally …